Week Ahead Spotlight: CPIs, Retail Sales, RBNZ Rates!

Tuesday, 21 May 2024, 14:30 – Canada Consumer Price Index (MoM)(Apr)

In March, Canada’s consumer price index increased by 0.6% compared to the previous month, surpassing the 0.3% growth seen earlier. Although the overall inflation rate in Canada rose slightly in March, it remained within the target set by the Bank of Canada, strengthening the argument for a potential interest rate cut in June. The focus is now on the upcoming May report release, which will play a crucial role in the next rate decision with market analysts anticipating a slowdown in core inflation.

Wednesday, 22 May 2024, 04:00 – RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

In April, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand opted to maintain its official cash rate at 5.5 percent for the sixth consecutive meeting, emphasizing the ongoing need to address inflation fully. The central bank highlighted the necessity of keeping interest rates elevated to address persistent inflationary pressures and steer towards achieving its target range of 1-3 percent. Consequently, it is anticipated that the central bank will not introduce any unexpected rate cuts, as it requires greater certainty before considering such measures.

Wednesday, 22 May 2024, 08:00 – UK Consumer Price Index (YoY)(Apr)

In March, the UK Consumer Price Index registered a slower-than-anticipated increase, reaching 3.2% in annual terms, down from the 3.4% rise observed in February. Despite surpassing expectations, this data also indicates a disinflationary trend within the UK economy, marking the lowest level recorded since September 2021. Andrew Bailey, the Governor of the Bank of England, noted on Tuesday that there was “strong evidence” suggesting that elevated interest rates were effectively curbing the pace of price increases. Market analysts foresee the continuation of this disinflationary trend in the upcoming months.

Friday, 24 May 2024, 08:00 – UK Retail Sales (MoM)(Apr)

In March, UK Retail Sales remained unexpectedly stagnant, diverging from analysts’ expectations of a 0.3% growth, which underscores the absence of monthly expansion. This stands in stark contrast to the revised higher figure of 0.1% in February, emphasizing the sluggish pace of Britain’s recovery from last year’s recession. According to the latest CBI Trade Survey, there was a notable decline in sales for the year ending in April 2024, with projections suggesting that this downward trend will persist, albeit at a reduced pace, in the coming months.