4 April 2025,05:28
Daily Market Analysis
4 April 2025, 05:28
Market Summary
The U.S. equity market plunged sharply as investors digested the implications of President Trump’s sweeping tariff measures against major U.S. trade partners. All three major indices gapped down and extended their losses throughout the session, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbling over 1,600 points, or 3.98%, highlighting the intense selling pressure. This risk-off sentiment is likely to persist as markets brace for prolonged trade tensions.
At the same time, U.S. Treasury yields continued to decline, reflecting a flight to safety, which in turn dragged the dollar to its lowest level since last September. The shockwaves from Trump’s aggressive trade stance reverberated across global markets, with both European and Asian equities suffering significant losses as the risk-averse mood took hold.
Amid these heightened uncertainties, safe-haven currencies like the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc outperformed their G7 peers, drawing strength from capital rotation into defensive assets. Gold, another traditional safe haven, experienced wide swings in the last session — briefly hitting a new all-time high above $3,100 before plunging over 3% on profit-taking activity.
Looking ahead, all eyes are on the upcoming U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report and unemployment rate. With the dollar already under pressure from geopolitical and trade-related headwinds, a lackluster NFP print could further undermine the greenback’s strength, reinforcing the market’s cautious stance in the face of Trump’s protectionist policies.
Current rate hike bets on 7th May Fed interest rate decision:
Source: CME Fedwatch Tool0 bps (67.3%) VS -25 bps (32.7%)
Market Overview
Economic Calendar
(MT4 System Time)
Source: MQL5
Market Movements
The Dollar Index continued to decline, trading at its lowest level since September, as pessimistic US economic outlook and escalating trade tensions took a toll on investor sentiment. Several countries, including the EU, China, and Canada, began to retaliate against US policies, further diminishing the prospects of the US economy. This uncertainty also caused US Treasury yields to drop, signaling a flight to safety, which put additional pressure on the dollar. The repercussions of President Trump’s aggressive trade stance have created ripples across global markets, compounding fears of a global economic slowdown.
The Dollar Index is trading lower while currently testing the support level. MACD has illustrated increasing bearish momentum, while RSI is at 26, suggesting the index might extend its losses after breakout since the RSI stays below the midline.
Resistance level: 103.25, 104.55
Support level: 101.75, 100.00
Gold prices experienced significant volatility, dropping sharply yesterday as investors were forced to sell off positions to cover margin calls triggered by a broader market sell-off in risk assets. Despite the short-term dip, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive. The escalating trade war, combined with growing fears of a global recession, is expected to drive continued demand for safe-haven assets like gold, supporting its price in the months ahead.
Gold prices are trading lower while currently testing the support level. MACD has illustrated increasing bearish momentum, while RSI is at 40, suggesting the commodity might extend its losses after breakout since the RSI stays below the midline.
Resistance level: 3110.00, 3135.00
Support level: 3085.00, 3055.00
The British pound initially strengthened as the UK emerged relatively unscathed from President Trump’s sweeping tariff measures, which have ignited fears of a global trade war. While the US imposed significant tariffs—20% on the European Union and 34% on China—the UK was spared the harshest penalties, prompting a rebound in GBP/USD. Downing Street expressed relief after avoiding the steeper rates it had anticipated. Analysts attributed this outcome to Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s more diplomatic and conciliatory stance toward the Trump administration, positioning the UK as a rare exception amid rising global trade tensions.
GBP/USD has since edged lower due to a technical correction and is currently testing a key support level. The MACD indicates fading bearish momentum, while the RSI continues to consolidate around the midline, suggesting that the pair may remain range-bound in the near term, with price action hovering around support.
Resistance level: 1.3175, 1.3260
Support level: 1.3085, 1.3010
The USD/JPY pair extended its slide, dipping to its lowest level since last October and breaching key support from previous lows — a move that reinforces a bearish bias for the pair. The sell-off reflects a broader flight to safety, as investors rotate into traditional safe-haven currencies like the Japanese Yen amid escalating trade war fears sparked by President Trump’s tariff measures. Meanwhile, waning confidence in the U.S. dollar has weighed heavily on the pair, as market participants anticipate potential headwinds to U.S. economic growth. Looking ahead, all eyes are on today’s U.S. (NFP report, which could inject short-term volatility into the pair. Nevertheless, the prevailing bearish momentum for USD/JPY is expected to remain intact if the NFP reading comes as no surprise.
The USD/JPY pair has dipped below its previous low level, suggesting a bearish bias for the pair. The RSI has gotten into the oversold zone while the MACD is diverging at below the zero line, suggest that the bearish momentum is gaining.
Resistance level: 147.10, 151.25
Support level: 143.80, 140.50
The USD/CAD pair remains under pressure as countries retaliate against US trade policies. Canada, in particular, is expected to see a stronger dollar after Prime Minister Mark Carney announced retaliatory measures. The growing global resistance to US tariffs points to a bearish outlook for the USD/CAD in the short term, especially with trade tensions escalating. With uncertainty mounting, the Canadian dollar could benefit from global concerns about the US economy.
USD/CAD is trading lower following the prior breakout below the previous support level. MACD has illustrated increasing bearish momentum, while RSI is at 34, suggesting the pair might extend its losses since the RSI stays below the midline.
Resistance level: 1.4155, 1.4340
Support level: 1.3845, 1.3605
Crude oil prices suffered their steepest single-day decline of 2025 in the last session, with WTI plunging toward the $66.00 mark. The sharp drop was driven by growing concerns over global demand after President Trump’s sweeping tariff announcement rattled markets and fueled fears of a broader economic slowdown. The aggressive protectionist stance has cast a shadow over the oil demand outlook. Adding to the pressure, OPEC announced it would triple its planned output hike in May, which raised alarm over a potential supply glut. With demand prospects dimming and supply expected to rise significantly, sentiment in the oil market turned sharply bearish, dragging prices lower and reinforcing the downside risks in the near term.
Oil prices are seemingly trading with significant downside pressure, and they are now hovering near their recent low levels, suggesting a bearish bias for oil. The RSI has declined into the oversold zone, while the MACD has crossed below the zero line and is diverging, suggesting that the bearish momentum is gaining.
Resistance level: 67.50, 68.60
Support level: 65.15, 64.00
US equities faced a major blow as the Nasdaq, Dow Jones, and S&P 500 each plunged more than 4% in a single session, wiping out billions in market value. This marked the worst single-day collapse for US stocks since the Covid-19 crash in 2020, triggered by Trump’s aggressive tariff announcements. The global financial markets are now in turmoil as fears of a full-blown trade war intensify. Countries like Canada, the UK, and the EU have already retaliated, with Canada slapping a 25% tariff on US vehicle imports, signaling a rift in US-Canada relations. The UK has also prepared potential tariffs targeting US goods, while the EU’s response is still under review.
Nasdaq is trading lower while currently testing the support level. However, MACD has illustrated increasing bearish momentum, while RSI is at 32, suggesting the index might experience technical correction since the RSI enters oversold territory.
Resistance level: 19160.00, 20345.00
Support level: 18405.00, 17385.00
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4 April 2025,05:28
Daily Market Analysis
4 April 2025, 05:28
Market Summary
The U.S. equity market plunged sharply as investors digested the implications of President Trump’s sweeping tariff measures against major U.S. trade partners. All three major indices gapped down and extended their losses throughout the session, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbling over 1,600 points, or 3.98%, highlighting the intense selling pressure. This risk-off sentiment is likely to persist as markets brace for prolonged trade tensions.
At the same time, U.S. Treasury yields continued to decline, reflecting a flight to safety, which in turn dragged the dollar to its lowest level since last September. The shockwaves from Trump’s aggressive trade stance reverberated across global markets, with both European and Asian equities suffering significant losses as the risk-averse mood took hold.
Amid these heightened uncertainties, safe-haven currencies like the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc outperformed their G7 peers, drawing strength from capital rotation into defensive assets. Gold, another traditional safe haven, experienced wide swings in the last session — briefly hitting a new all-time high above $3,100 before plunging over 3% on profit-taking activity.
Looking ahead, all eyes are on the upcoming U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report and unemployment rate. With the dollar already under pressure from geopolitical and trade-related headwinds, a lackluster NFP print could further undermine the greenback’s strength, reinforcing the market’s cautious stance in the face of Trump’s protectionist policies.
Current rate hike bets on 7th May Fed interest rate decision:
Source: CME Fedwatch Tool0 bps (67.3%) VS -25 bps (32.7%)
Market Overview
Economic Calendar
(MT4 System Time)
Source: MQL5
Market Movements
The Dollar Index continued to decline, trading at its lowest level since September, as pessimistic US economic outlook and escalating trade tensions took a toll on investor sentiment. Several countries, including the EU, China, and Canada, began to retaliate against US policies, further diminishing the prospects of the US economy. This uncertainty also caused US Treasury yields to drop, signaling a flight to safety, which put additional pressure on the dollar. The repercussions of President Trump’s aggressive trade stance have created ripples across global markets, compounding fears of a global economic slowdown.
The Dollar Index is trading lower while currently testing the support level. MACD has illustrated increasing bearish momentum, while RSI is at 26, suggesting the index might extend its losses after breakout since the RSI stays below the midline.
Resistance level: 103.25, 104.55
Support level: 101.75, 100.00
Gold prices experienced significant volatility, dropping sharply yesterday as investors were forced to sell off positions to cover margin calls triggered by a broader market sell-off in risk assets. Despite the short-term dip, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive. The escalating trade war, combined with growing fears of a global recession, is expected to drive continued demand for safe-haven assets like gold, supporting its price in the months ahead.
Gold prices are trading lower while currently testing the support level. MACD has illustrated increasing bearish momentum, while RSI is at 40, suggesting the commodity might extend its losses after breakout since the RSI stays below the midline.
Resistance level: 3110.00, 3135.00
Support level: 3085.00, 3055.00
The British pound initially strengthened as the UK emerged relatively unscathed from President Trump’s sweeping tariff measures, which have ignited fears of a global trade war. While the US imposed significant tariffs—20% on the European Union and 34% on China—the UK was spared the harshest penalties, prompting a rebound in GBP/USD. Downing Street expressed relief after avoiding the steeper rates it had anticipated. Analysts attributed this outcome to Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s more diplomatic and conciliatory stance toward the Trump administration, positioning the UK as a rare exception amid rising global trade tensions.
GBP/USD has since edged lower due to a technical correction and is currently testing a key support level. The MACD indicates fading bearish momentum, while the RSI continues to consolidate around the midline, suggesting that the pair may remain range-bound in the near term, with price action hovering around support.
Resistance level: 1.3175, 1.3260
Support level: 1.3085, 1.3010
The USD/JPY pair extended its slide, dipping to its lowest level since last October and breaching key support from previous lows — a move that reinforces a bearish bias for the pair. The sell-off reflects a broader flight to safety, as investors rotate into traditional safe-haven currencies like the Japanese Yen amid escalating trade war fears sparked by President Trump’s tariff measures. Meanwhile, waning confidence in the U.S. dollar has weighed heavily on the pair, as market participants anticipate potential headwinds to U.S. economic growth. Looking ahead, all eyes are on today’s U.S. (NFP report, which could inject short-term volatility into the pair. Nevertheless, the prevailing bearish momentum for USD/JPY is expected to remain intact if the NFP reading comes as no surprise.
The USD/JPY pair has dipped below its previous low level, suggesting a bearish bias for the pair. The RSI has gotten into the oversold zone while the MACD is diverging at below the zero line, suggest that the bearish momentum is gaining.
Resistance level: 147.10, 151.25
Support level: 143.80, 140.50
The USD/CAD pair remains under pressure as countries retaliate against US trade policies. Canada, in particular, is expected to see a stronger dollar after Prime Minister Mark Carney announced retaliatory measures. The growing global resistance to US tariffs points to a bearish outlook for the USD/CAD in the short term, especially with trade tensions escalating. With uncertainty mounting, the Canadian dollar could benefit from global concerns about the US economy.
USD/CAD is trading lower following the prior breakout below the previous support level. MACD has illustrated increasing bearish momentum, while RSI is at 34, suggesting the pair might extend its losses since the RSI stays below the midline.
Resistance level: 1.4155, 1.4340
Support level: 1.3845, 1.3605
Crude oil prices suffered their steepest single-day decline of 2025 in the last session, with WTI plunging toward the $66.00 mark. The sharp drop was driven by growing concerns over global demand after President Trump’s sweeping tariff announcement rattled markets and fueled fears of a broader economic slowdown. The aggressive protectionist stance has cast a shadow over the oil demand outlook. Adding to the pressure, OPEC announced it would triple its planned output hike in May, which raised alarm over a potential supply glut. With demand prospects dimming and supply expected to rise significantly, sentiment in the oil market turned sharply bearish, dragging prices lower and reinforcing the downside risks in the near term.
Oil prices are seemingly trading with significant downside pressure, and they are now hovering near their recent low levels, suggesting a bearish bias for oil. The RSI has declined into the oversold zone, while the MACD has crossed below the zero line and is diverging, suggesting that the bearish momentum is gaining.
Resistance level: 67.50, 68.60
Support level: 65.15, 64.00
US equities faced a major blow as the Nasdaq, Dow Jones, and S&P 500 each plunged more than 4% in a single session, wiping out billions in market value. This marked the worst single-day collapse for US stocks since the Covid-19 crash in 2020, triggered by Trump’s aggressive tariff announcements. The global financial markets are now in turmoil as fears of a full-blown trade war intensify. Countries like Canada, the UK, and the EU have already retaliated, with Canada slapping a 25% tariff on US vehicle imports, signaling a rift in US-Canada relations. The UK has also prepared potential tariffs targeting US goods, while the EU’s response is still under review.
Nasdaq is trading lower while currently testing the support level. However, MACD has illustrated increasing bearish momentum, while RSI is at 32, suggesting the index might experience technical correction since the RSI enters oversold territory.
Resistance level: 19160.00, 20345.00
Support level: 18405.00, 17385.00
Trade forex, indices, metal, and more at industry-low spreads and lightning-fast execution.
Sign up for a PU Prime Live Account with our hassle-free process.
Effortlessly fund your account with a wide range of channels and accepted currencies.
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Sign up for a PU Prime Live Account with our hassle-free process.
Effortlessly fund your account with a wide range of channels and accepted currencies.
Access hundreds of instruments under market-leading trading conditions.
