Eyes on Today’s FOMC Minutes

Market Summary

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) delivered a larger rate cut by 50 bps, weighing heavily on the Kiwi dollar. The NZD/USD pair tumbled to a weekly low, under pressure from the central bank’s dovish stance, as policymakers signaled further rate cuts ahead to support the country’s struggling economy. Unlike the RBA, which maintained a hawkish tone after its rate cut, the RBNZ’s outright dovish guidance has accelerated the Kiwi’s decline.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar found support after former President Trump threatened new tariffs, proposing a 25% levy on autos, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductor products. This protectionist policy shift boosted sentiment on Wall Street, pushing both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 to record highs.

The market now turns to today’s FOMC meeting minutes, which will be crucial in shaping the greenback’s near-term trajectory, as well as broader risk sentiment. In the UK, the Pound Sterling has been firm in recent sessions, with traders eyeing today’s UK CPI release, expected to show an upbeat inflation print, potentially fueling further gains for GBP/USD.

In the gold market, spot prices surged to a fresh all-time high, as Trump’s tariff threats reignited uncertainty, prompting investors to seek safe-haven assets amid rising geopolitical and economic risks.

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Current rate hike bets on 19th March Fed interest rate decision: 

Source: CME Fedwatch Tool

0 bps (98%) VS -25 bps (2%)

Market Overview

Economic Calendar

(MT4 System Time)

Source: MQL5 

Market Movements

DOLLAR_INDX, H4

The U.S. dollar index traded flat but saw a mild rebound after Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker reaffirmed a steady-rate stance, citing persistent inflation concerns. While opposing immediate rate cuts, Harker emphasized the Fed’s data-dependent approach, keeping investors focused on upcoming economic indicators for potential policy shifts. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields also remained stable as markets awaited further clarity on interest rate direction.

The Dollar Index is trading higher following the prior rebound from the support level. MACD has illustrated increasing bullish momentum, while RSI is at 47, suggesting the index might extend its gains since the RSI rebounded sharply from oversold territory. 

Resistance level: 107.45, 108.40

Support level: 106.55, 105.65

XAU/USD, H4

Global markets remain volatile as escalating trade tensions and economic uncertainty drive investors toward safe-haven assets. Gold extended its rally amid heightened risk aversion after former U.S. President Donald Trump renewed tariff threats, proposing duties of up to 25% on semiconductor chips, pharmaceuticals, and foreign car imports. The prospect of higher tariffs has raised fears of supply chain disruptions and slower global growth, further bolstering demand for gold.

Gold prices are trading higher while currently testing the resistance level. However, MACD has illustrated increasing bearish momentum, while RSI is at 57, suggesting the commodity might experience technical correction since the RSI retreated from overbought territory. 

Resistance level:  2935.00, 2955.00

Support level: 2915.00, 2875.00

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GBP/USD，H4

The Pound Sterling has held firm in recent sessions, but GBP/USD has struggled to gain clear directional momentum, trading sideways as the resurgent U.S. dollar offsets its strength. The greenback has found renewed support after reports suggested that the Trump administration is preparing a new round of protectionist policies, including tariffs on key sectors. Meanwhile, market participants are closely watching today’s UK CPI release, with expectations of rising inflationary pressure in the UK. A higher-than-expected CPI print could reinforce the Bank of England’s cautious stance on rate cuts, potentially fueling further gains for the Pound Sterling.

GBP/USD has been consolidating after the pair rallied by more than 2% since last week. The RSI remained close to the overbought zone while the MACD saw a cross on the above, which signalled an easing of the bullish momentum. 

Resistance level: 1.2730, 1.2850

Support level: 1.2485, 1.2375

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EUR/USD，H4

EUR/USD struggled to break through resistance near the 1.0515 mark, leading to a pullback in the recent session. With the euro lacking a clear catalyst, the pair’s movements have been largely dictated by U.S. dollar dynamics. The greenback’s renewed strength has placed downward pressure on EUR/USD, limiting any significant upside momentum. Traders are now turning their attention to today’s FOMC meeting minutes, which could offer fresh insights into the Fed’s policy outlook. A hawkish tone reinforcing the need for higher-for-longer interest rates could further strengthen the dollar, exerting additional pressure on the pair.

The EUR/USD pair remains trading within its bullish trajectory despite a technical retracement. A break below the current support level at 1.0445 would be a bearish signal for the pair. The RSI has eased, while the MACD has a cross on top, suggesting that the bullish momentum is vanishing. 

Resistance level: 1.0515, 1.0595

Support level: 1.0388, 1.0330

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NZD/USD，H4

NZD/USD came under heavy selling pressure after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) delivered a larger-than-usual rate cut during the Sydney session, sending the pair to its weekly low before staging a technical rebound. The Kiwi’s weakness was further exacerbated by RBNZ officials signaling two additional rate cuts in the first half of 2025, reinforcing a dovish policy stance. This outlook has widened the monetary policy divergence between New Zealand and its peers, making the NZD less attractive in the forex market.

The pair has been trading in a higher-high trend, which suggests a bullish bias before the technical retracement. Sustaining at above the 0.5685 mark shall be a critical level for the pair to remain in the bullish trajectory. The RSI remains supported above the 50 levels, while the MACD saw a cross above, suggesting that the bullish momentum is easing. 

Resistance level: 0.5733, 0.5780

Support level: 0.5665, 0.5615

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USD/JPY, H4: 

USD/JPY remains under intense bearish pressure, retreating sharply from its 2025 peak of 158.88 as the Japanese yen strengthens and the U.S. dollar wavers. The yen’s resilience is underpinned by stronger-than-expected PPI and GDP data, which have reinforced market speculation of a Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike in March. Meanwhile, traders are closely watching today’s FOMC meeting minutes for clues on the Fed’s rate path, which could dictate the dollar’s next move. A break below 151.30 would signal further downside momentum, potentially accelerating the pair’s bearish trajectory.

The USD/JPY pair, after erased all its gains in the last week, has been sideways and awaiting a catalyst to pick a direction. The RSI remains below the 50 level, while the MACD is about to cross below the zero line, suggesting that the bearish momentum is easing. 

Resistance level: 154.00, 156.15

Support level: 150.85, 149.20

Nasdaq, H4

U.S. equities traded flat as investors weighed the impact of Trump’s proposed tariffs on key sectors. Market sentiment remains cautious, with fears that higher trade barriers could slow economic growth and limit stock market gains. The Federal Reserve’s reaffirmation of a data-driven policy approach has also kept investors in a wait-and-see mode, awaiting key economic data for further direction.

Nasdaq is trading higher while currently testing the resistance level. MACD has illustrated increasing bullish momentum, while RSI is at 67, suggesting the index might extend its gains after breakout since the RSI stays above the midline. 

Resistance level: 22175.00, 22515.00

Support level: 21420.00, 20650.00

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Crude Oil, H4

Crude oil prices rebounded after reports that OPEC+ may postpone planned production increases in April, while geopolitical risks added to supply concerns. A senior Russian official claimed Ukrainian drone attacks damaged a key oil pipeline responsible for 1% of global crude output. While this disruption fueled short-term supply fears, optimism over potential Russia-Ukraine peace talks capped further gains.

Crude oil prices are trading higher while currently testing the resistance level. MACD has illustrated increasing bullish momentum, while RSI is at 60, suggesting the commodity might extend its gains since the RSI stays above the midline. 

Resistance level: 71.95, 72.55

Support level: 70.95, 70.25

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