Dollar Stable Despite Quiet Week, PCE May Boost It Further

Tuesday, 26 November 2024, 17:00 – US CB Consumer Confidence

The latest U.S. CB Consumer Confidence Index for showed a strong improvement to 108.7, surpassing both the forecast of 99.5 and the previous month’s 99.2. This rebound indicates heightened optimism among U.S. consumers about current and future economic conditions. Key drivers included robust job market performance and easing concerns over inflation, as prices have moderated due to Federal Reserve policies aimed at cooling demand. The current upward suggests further potential for continued strength which may be reflected on the upcoming release.

Wednesday, 27 November 2024, 03:00 – RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

On October, The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announced a 50-basis point cut in the Official Cash Rate (OCR), bringing it down to 4.75%. This decision was primarily driven by the subdued state of the New Zealand economy, marked by weak consumer spending, low business investment, and excess economic capacity. Inflation is now within the target range of 1-3% and is expected to stabilize near the midpoint. Given the current economic conditions and RBNZ’s stated commitment to maintaining low and stable inflation, the central bank will likely hold rates steady in its next meeting while continue to assess the impact of recent cuts and monitoring inflation trends, employment, and global risks.

Wednesday, 27 November 2024, 15:30 – U.S GDP (QoQ) (Q3)

The U.S. GDP for Q3 2024, released in October, grew at 2.8% annually, just below the 3.0% rate in Q2. This growth was fueled by strong consumer spending, federal spending, and higher exports, with notable contributions from healthcare, prescription drugs, and vehicles. The second Q3 GDP estimate, due November 27, will include more data, and minor revisions are expected to confirm the current growth rate due to continued strength in consumer and government spending.

Wednesday, 27 November 2024, 17:00 – US Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Oct)

For September, The U.S. Core PCE Price Index increased by 2.7% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations of 2.6%. This marks a continuation of the 2.7% annual growth seen in August. The primary reason behind the data was due to inflation on service prices where it grew by 3.7% year-on-year, contributing significantly to the overall rise, while prices for goods fell by 1.2%. The upcoming release is expected to reflect gradual deceleration due to the Federal Reserve’s ongoing monetary policy tightening. However, service inflation and resilient consumer spending could moderate the pace of decline. A year-on-year growth of 2.6%-2.7% is likely for the next release, barring unexpected economic shifts.