Dollar Reign Supreme, US Jobs Eyed Next Week!

Tuesday, 7 January 2025, 17:00 – US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Dec)

The U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for November registered at 52.1, falling short of the market’s expectation of 55.5. While the reading indicates continued growth in the U.S. services sector, it reflects a slower pace than October’s figure of 56.0. This slowdown was mainly attributed to declines in areas such as new orders, the employment index, and business activity, suggesting a cautious business outlook amidst economic uncertainties. Looking forward, analysts predict a slight rebound, with the data expected to show modest acceleration, reaching 54.0 by the end of the quarter.

Wednesday, 8 January 2025, 15:15 – US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Dec)

The ADP Nonfarm Employment Change report for November 2024 shows that private-sector employment in the U.S. rose by 146,000 jobs, below the market expectation of 166,000 and the previous month’s increase of 184,000. This suggests a cooling labor market, as businesses remain cautious about hiring due to concerns over economic stability and future demand. Sectors like professional and business services have also seen slower growth, contributing to the overall slowdown. The upcoming report is expected to continue reflecting this trend, with moderate job growth anticipated in the near term.

Wednesday, 8 January 2025, 21:00 – FOMC Meeting Minutes

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released its latest minutes of its November 6–7, 2024 meeting on November 26, 2024. During this meeting, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.5%–4.75%. The Committee noted solid economic conditions, with upward revisions to 2024 GDP growth due to robust spending and labor market indicators. Inflation forecasts for 2024 were slightly higher but are expected to decline, with PCE inflation projected to reach 2% by 2026 as markets stabilize. Emphasizing a gradual approach to rate adjustments, the Committee highlighted the need to monitor incoming data and balance risks. Given the current economic indicators, it is anticipated that the Committee will continue to assess the appropriateness of the monetary policy stance, especially in light of persistent inflation and uncertainties regarding the neutral rate of interest.

Friday, 10 January 2025, 15:30 – U.S Nonfarm Payrolls (Dec)

The latest U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report revealed a notable increase of 227,000 jobs in November, marking a strong recovery from the revised October figure of 36,000. This result also surpassed the market forecast of 202,000 jobs. The rebound is largely attributed to the resolution of disruptions like the Boeing strike and recovery from recent hurricanes that had previously dampened job growth. Analysts expect moderate job growth to persist in the upcoming release, with projections of around 200,000 jobs being added in the coming months. Key factors driving this outlook include steady economic growth, robust consumer spending, and potential policy changes under the incoming administration.