Eyes on Today’s NFP

Market Summary

The U.S. dollar remains subdued, with the dollar index down over 3% since Monday, as investors await today’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. A stronger-than-expected reading could provide much-needed support for the greenback, which has faced persistent selling pressure amid aggressive trade policies from the Trump administration.

On Wall Street, risk sentiment remains fragile, with all three major indices extending their declines. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have slumped to their lowest levels since November, as trade tensions continue to rattle investor confidence. A robust NFP report could further weigh on equities, reinforcing concerns over tighter monetary policy.

Meanwhile, China’s equity markets are finding support, as Beijing signals more aggressive fiscal and monetary stimulus following this week’s Two Sessions meeting. The China A50 and Hang Seng Index have outperformed, buoyed by expectations of pro-growth policies.

In the forex market, the euro remains one of the strongest G7 currencies, fueled by a sharp selloff in German Bunds that has driven yields to record highs. Traders are closely watching today’s eurozone GDP release, which could further bolster euro upside momentum. At the same time, Japanese bond yields have surged ahead of the Bank of Japan’s upcoming rate decision, keeping the yen supported on expectations of a potential policy shift.

In crypto markets, all eyes are on the U.S. crypto summit at the White House. If President Trump delivers any promising policy announcements, it could trigger a bullish rally across digital assets, with traders positioning ahead of potential regulatory shifts.

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Current rate hike bets on 19th March Fed interest rate decision: 

Source: CME Fedwatch Tool

0 bps (95%) VS -25 bps (5%)

Market Overview

Economic Calendar

(MT4 System Time)

Source: MQL5 

Market Movements

DOLLAR_INDX, H4

The Dollar Index held steady after U.S. Initial Jobless Claims came in at 221K, beating expectations of 234K and fueling optimism ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. However, traders remained cautious as labor market data and ongoing U.S. tariff policies continued to influence sentiment. President Donald Trump escalated trade tensions by imposing 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports, only to delay auto sector levies for a month. This policy uncertainty has left investors hesitant to make decisive moves in currency markets.

The Dollar Index is trading lower while currently testing the support level. MACD has illustrated increasing bearish momentum, while RSI is at 28, suggesting the index might enter oversold territory. 

Resistance level: 105.65, 107.60

Support level: 103.90, 102.40

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XAU/USD, H4

Gold prices consolidated as investors awaited fresh market catalysts amid a mixed economic landscape. While jobless claims declined, U.S.-based employers announced 172,017 job cuts, the highest February total since 2009. With the NFP report expected to show 160K new jobs, the market remains in a wait-and-see mode. Gold’s safe-haven appeal could strengthen if labor data disappoints or trade tensions escalate further, particularly with uncertainty surrounding the Russia-Ukraine war and global trade policies.

Gold prices are trading lower following the prior retracement from the resistance level. MACD has illustrated increasing bearish momentum, while RSI is at 44, suggesting the commodity might extend its losses since the RSI stays below the midline. 

Resistance level:  2920.00, 2950.00

Support level: 2895.00, 2860.00

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EUR/USD, H4

The euro continues to rally, driven by growing optimism over economic expansion following Germany’s large-scale national spending plans under its newly elected chancellor. Market sentiment remains bullish on the expectation of stronger fiscal support, which could further accelerate growth in the eurozone’s largest economy. Investors are now turning their focus to today’s eurozone GDP release. A better-than-expected reading could reinforce the euro’s upside momentum, further strengthening its position as one of the top-performing G7 currencies.

The EUR/USD pair is currently traded sideways after a rally. The pair is able to sustain itself above the FVG, suggesting that it remains trading in a bullish trajectory. The RSI is flowing in the overbought zone while the MACD remains elevated, suggesting that it remains trading with bullish momentum. 

Resistance level: 1.0956, 1.1075

Support level: 1.0672, 1.0527

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USD/JPY，H4

The USD/JPY pair continues its downward trajectory, hitting fresh lows amid growing market confidence in a Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike scheduled in 12 days. Expectations of policy normalization by the BoJ have fueled strong yen demand, further pressuring the pair. Meanwhile, investors are eyeing today’s U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which could play a pivotal role in determining the dollar’s near-term direction. 

The pair has been trading in a lower-low price pattern, suggesting a bearish bias. The RSI is sliding toward the oversold zone while the MACD remains below the zero line, suggesting that the pair remains trading with bearish momentum. 

Resistance level: 149.50, 151.30

Support level: 147.00, 143.80

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USD/CAD，H4

The USD/CAD pair remains in a downtrend, but recent sessions suggest bearish momentum is easing, with the pair forming downside wicks indicative of potential stabilization. The Canadian dollar continues to gain traction, supported by the Trump administration’s decision to delay auto tariffs on Canada, reducing near-term trade uncertainty. Additionally, Canada’s Prime Minister has announced retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports, further bolstering the loonie’s strength. Market participants will be closely watching developments in the U.S.-Canada trade front as well as key economic data releases, which could influence the pair’s next move.

The USD/CAD pair has been declining, but it has formed a downside shadow, suggesting a potential technical rebound. The RSI has been sliding, while the MACD has broken below the zero line, suggesting that the pair remains trading with bearish momentum. 

Resistance level:1.4355, 1.4460

Support level: 1.4265, 1.4155

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NASDAQ, H4

U.S. stock markets experienced a sharp selloff as fears over tariffs and doubts about AI-driven growth weighed on sentiment. The Nasdaq Composite plunged 2.6%, officially entering correction territory, while the Dow Jones lost over 400 points and the S&P 500 fell nearly 2%. Investors remain uncertain about the long-term impact of Trump’s trade policies, despite a temporary delay in some tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods. With markets already under pressure from rising borrowing costs and persistent inflation concerns, the latest trade developments triggered renewed selling in risk assets.

Nasdaq is trading lower while currently near the support level. MACD has illustrated increasing bearish momentum. However, RSI is at 28, suggesting the index might enter oversold territory. 

Resistance level: 20550.00, 21045.00

Support level: 19900.00, 19360.00

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USOIL, H4

Oil prices faced downward pressure following OPEC+’s decision to increase output, a larger-than-expected build in U.S. crude inventories, and speculation over a potential Russia-Ukraine ceasefire. These factors drove oil to its lowest level since December 2021, with economic uncertainty weighing on global demand. While expectations of Chinese stimulus provided some support, the broader outlook remains fragile as shifting geopolitical risks and U.S. tariffs contribute to supply and demand concerns.

Oil prices are trading lower while currently testing the support level. MACD has illustrated increasing bearish momentum, while RSI is at 33, suggesting the commodity might extend its losses after breakout since the RSI stays below the midline. 

Resistance level: 71.50, 74.95

Support level: 66.15, 60.45

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